While the charges were ranked as a key issue in the polls among voters and one that Republicans relied on during the midterms, the issue did not translate into the kind of victory the party was hoping for on election night.
However, members of the party credit the Republicans’ message about crime by helping the party to narrow down several races in New York and make some House, Senate and gubernatorial races closer than expected.
Meanwhile, Republicans say a combination of factors, such as the distraction of national issues, poor planning and the geography of voters, contributed to why the issue of crime did not resonate with voters as they had hoped. They also say that the many issues at play can make understanding the middle of the term even more tricky.
“The issue of crime is — acting like a supporter. So you have to have it in your specific issue, and you have to include the importance of public safety and crime in the first issue, which is the economy. I don’t think Republicans have made these arguments,” said GOP analyst John Thomas.
Thomas said the campaigns may have created “relatable” messages that link crime to voters’ agendas, for example arguing that the economy will suffer if business owners fail to ensure the safety of their businesses.
“I’ve rarely seen what we’ve been talking about where members of Congress have put together a high-profile issue and explained why it’s all about the economy, whether it’s crime, or education, or inflation,” Thomas said, referring to the House race. “I think a lot of Republicans have missed the mark, both at the congressional level, and …
Some Republicans say that the issue of crime was important for their party to focus on, but it was engrossed in other discussions including abortion with former President Trump.
“When you’re talking about the House race and the race, I think they’re caught in the same coalition that a senator would be,” said one GOP strategist who asked not to be identified. “And so I think that’s where, in a lot of tough congressional districts or even in a gubernatorial race it would have been appropriate for a criminal discussion and debate… .”
“It’s like the House races, even if you’re in a House district with a large urban area on the edge of a big city where crime is a significant issue there, I think the issue has been put into second gear, too, because… the national debate and the debate and the hate and the power of that debate overshadowed the crime when people came to the polls, ” the expert added.
Their exit polls show that crime, although not seen as a major issue, was still seen as a top issue. A poll from Edison Research and published by Reuters showed that crime took third place between Republicans and Democrats when voters were asked which of the five issues they were given to choose from were the most important to them when choosing their votes.
But the issue of fraud is complex, as data and insights tell complex stories. Just take for example a bulletin from the Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics published in September showing that the rate of abuse – which includes assault, aggravated assault, rape or rape and robbery – has fallen both between 1993 and 2021 and in between. 2012 and 2021 only.
Between 1993 and 2021, the Bureau of Justice Statistics bulletin, which includes data taken from a self-reported survey called the National Crime Victimization Survey, found that the rate of violent victimization dropped from 79.8 victimizations per 1,000 people over 12 to 16 years. abuse of 1,000 people for that same person in 2021. Between 2012 and 2021, this number dropped from 26.1 victims per 1,000 people to 16.5 victims.
But there are several caveats. The data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics bulletin is just another data point, given that the survey it relies on is self-reported by respondents. This means that it does not investigate murder, for example. Additionally, local police departments maintain their own crime database in addition to the FBI, which has a National Incident-Based Reporting System, although it does not include data from all police departments.
Crime as an issue for voters is also shaped by personal experiences, news and other opinions, although data provides a different story.
One GOP official argued that the issue rarely resonated well with voters in House races, for example, because crime did not matter to their communities. But the official also said voters’ messages about crime created tighter-than-expected races and resonated with voters on Long Island enough to flip many blue-chip seats.
“Everything, however, was a big issue for the Republicans, considering that the success of New York may be one of the indicators of the use of criminal information,” said the official GOP. “And to be honest with you, yes, Dr. [Mehmet] Oz lost that race in Pennsylvania, but that’s where he started and where he ended [was] the race is much closer than it was at the top of the summer. That was only because of crime.”
Indeed, Democrats running in House races, for example, have been instructed to take the crime issue seriously. A memo from the House Democrats’ campaign that was sent to members and candidates earlier this year and obtained by The Hill provided guidance to voters on how to counter the Republican attack on “turning back the police” and showing their record on the law. and public safety.
“Republicans will seek to bind every Democrat to ‘recover’ regardless of the Democrat’s record or biography. They are doing this because, unfortunately, these attacks can work even when they are clearly false. While these attacks may seem silly to do, they are wrong. We must respond,” the memo said. he said briefly.
Although it’s too early to tell how the issue of fraud will resonate with voters in 2024, some Republicans are hoping it won’t be an issue they want to campaign on again. But for Rep.-elect Anthony D’Esposito, a former New York Police Department detective who swept New York’s 4th Congressional District red in a district that went to the Democratic candidate in the last round by 13 points, he is telling Republicans to meet with voters on the issue. they are.
“I think that the focus of everyone who is seeking office, regardless of where you live or where you compete, is to listen to the voters and stick to the document they give you. And when you talk to voters and when you poll voters and if you have an issue or three major issues, stick to it,” D’Esposito told The Hill.